Defeat to Pakistan on Sunday means India are up against it.
After cruising through the first Group Stage and being hot favourites to win this year, they’re now almost in a situation where they can’t afford to lose either of their last two games.
In truth, they didn’t do too much wrong against Pakistan.
They put on a good total of 181/7, although it is true that the middle-order of Sky Yadav, Deepak Hooda, Rishabh Pant and Hardik Pandya never got going, meaning they probably fell about 10-15 runs short of what they may have got after a blistering start.
Once again it was left to Virat Kohli to steer the ship with a good 60 off 44, after Rohit Sharma and KL Rahul smashed early boundaries, before getting out in quick succession.
With the ball, Arshdeep Singh and Ravi Bishnoi were good and economical but the rest weren’t.
Singh may ultimately have cost them the game, not with poor bowling, but with a dropped catch at a vital time; on such things are games won and lost.
But we shouldn’t be too harsh. Chasing is always a huge advantage in Dubai, so it proved once again.
A fair assessment is that the coin toss was ultimately the most important factor of all, more so than how the players from either side performed on the night.
Despite the defeat, they may stick with the same side again unless they bring back Dinesh Karthik for Pant.
They’ve now successfully chased two very competitive totals: first against Bangladesh in their do-or-die second Group match and then against Afghanistan to get themselves off to the best possible start in the Super Four stage.
It’s clear that their strength is with the bat at the moment and it’s even clearer that they’re a side made to chase rather than bat first.
With the ball Hasaranga was good as usual; he may not have taken a wicket this time but an economy rate of 5.75 was like gold dust in a high-scoring match.
And for good measure, he also scored 16 off 9 in the chase, just when Sri Lanka were starting to feel the pressure.
All of Kusal Mendis, Danushka Gunathilaka and Bhanuka Rajapaksa made important contributions with the bat in that vital win
And they could make the final from this position if they win one of their two remaining matches, though it could easily come down to net run rate.